One thing is clear: Electric vehicles (EVs) in last-mile will become a significant way for carriers to cut fuel costs, control repair expenses, and reduce overhead. What’s not clear is when.
“For last-mile carriers, electric vehicles make so much sense. However, until the political and regulatory unknowns crystallize, a lot is up in the air about when this sector will fully embrace the use of electric vehicles. But we expect that it will happen eventually,” says Dennis Bolton. He is the senior managing director and head of equipment finance for Gordon Brothers, a company specializing in asset services, lending and financing, and trading.
Bolton points to delivery giants like Amazon and Walmart, which have already committed to EV technology. He sees this using these vehicles in the supply chain. “There’s a reason these companies use electric vehicles – they are very efficient in their operations. Granted, these big companies have lots of capital, but it’s a strong statement about the feasibility of the technology,” he says.
Electric Vehicles in Last-Mile Space: Well Suited
Bolton sees a real fit for the efficiency and low costs of operating EVs for those in the last mile. “When it comes to productivity, there are huge benefits over time for the last-mile sector compared to the traditional internal combustion engines,” he says. “When you think about the starts and stops in the last mile, we know EVs perform so much better, with less cost per mile compared to the inefficiency of internal combustion engines. That’s especially true in cities where the cost per mile escalates because of the additional fuel burned when you start and stop an internal combustion engine. You don’t have that with EVs. Remember the friction from stopping an EV recharges the battery. That same friction ends up wearing out parts for an internal combustion engine. This shows up in the cost of repairs and the need to replace them over time.”
With that said, Bolton acknowledges the current high cost of the vehicles makes them a capital investment that’s out of reach for many carriers and drivers. “I think it’s the classic trade-off between the cost of entry and the cost per mile,” he says. “You have to ask yourself, ‘Is it worth it right now?’ It is a high upfront cost if you’re talking about the increased costs of buying EV vehicles and the need to install on-site charging stations. However, over the vehicle’s life, the cost per mile is much lower, and not just in terms of fuel costs but also repair costs. There are a lot fewer moving parts in an electric vehicle compared to an internal combustion engine. This means the level of maintenance and the degree of wear are lower. So, the payback on an EV comes over time, but you still have to make that upfront investment. For well-capitalized companies, that’s not a problem. For those who aren’t or independent contract drivers considering purchasing an EV, that’s certainly more of a challenge.”
Electric Vehicles in Last-Mile’s Impact on Route Optimization
There’s also an impact on route optimization. There’s a gas station on every corner, but that’s not the case for charging stations. “If you are an asset-based company or an independent contractor with the infrastructure at your home base, you can support the vehicle. So route planning won’t be that much of an issue,” says Bolton. “But if you don’t have that infrastructure and must use only public charging stations, then you’re going to have to be very careful in your route planning to make sure you’re efficient.”
He also points out that, depending on the range and driving patterns of the drivers, there may be a need to charge during the day. “You’ll have to factor in the location of charging stations when you plan the route and anticipate the time it will take to do it,” he says. “But that’s just a matter of including those factors when your system plans your routes.”
Challenges Facing Last-Mile Carriers Considering EVs
Bolton acknowledges the conversion to EVs will take time. “I think there’ll be people in the market who have always used internal combustion vehicles and will be reluctant to adopt this technology. It will take them a little while to become converts,” he says.
There’s also the reality of the current environment. A year ago, the consulting firm Deloitte projected “…a pivotal transformation in the logistics landscape [towards EVs], driven by environmental concerns, consumer demands and industry giants…” by 2030. A lot has changed in 12 months. “Today, there are a lot of unknowns. Where we saw heavy investment in EVs with government incentives and support, today, there is a lot of uncertainty. Companies are starting to question what’s going to happen in this environment. They are asking themselves whether now is the right time to make that investment, or whether they should look for a more stable regulatory environment or better direction before jumping. As a result, we’re seeing businesses scaling back on their EV investments,” says Bolton
This Will Happen
He believes the economics of using electric vehicles will eventually cause the market to change. “There are a lot of unknowns today, and, until those settle, adoption will be slow,” he says. “We expect to see a dampening effect over the next few years. That said, I think it’s just a matter of time before EVs play a significant role in the last mile because the economic model makes so much sense for this sector. They are very efficient in their operations. Yes, the industry will have to work through the capitalization and infrastructure issues, but it’s going to happen. It’s only a matter of time.”
